The Sahel Overflows: Waves Reach the Atlantic

The Sahel Overflows: Waves Reach the Atlantic

What happens in the Sahel is no longer a distant issue. More than three thousand kilometers from the Canary Islands, the instability shaking Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger now translates into mass migration, security threats, and energy tensions hitting Spain’s Atlantic shores.

A Political Break with Global Consequences

In January 2025, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The move, framed in sovereignty-driven rhetoric and backed by growing Russian influence, closed the chapter in which France and the United States held sway over the region.

The withdrawal weakened regional cooperation just as the jihadist threat was intensifying. In April, a single attack in northern Benin killed 54 soldiers, the deadliest incident in the country’s modern history. In the first four months of 2025 alone, fatalities already surpassed the total recorded in 2024.

Turning to the Sea

Facing internal pressure, Sahel governments are now looking toward the Atlantic. Morocco has launched its Atlantic Initiative, offering landlocked nations access to ports such as Dakhla. Algeria, meanwhile, is trying to secure alternative energy routes to avoid being sidelined.

But the projects are fragile. The Niger–Benin Oil Pipeline (NBEP), critical for crude exports, has faced sabotage and blockades — a reminder that in the Sahel, no strategic project is safe from collapse.

The Impact on Spain

The consequences are already visible in the Canary Islands. In 2024, 46,843 migrants arrived by boat — a historic record. The other side of the route is even grimmer: more than 10,000 deaths or disappearances in a single year, according to NGOs and international organizations. Although arrivals have fallen in 2025, the mortality rate remains alarmingly high, keeping Spanish authorities on alert.

Benin: The New Frontline

Northern Benin, particularly regions such as Alibori, has become the latest frontline. Attacks by the jihadist group JNIM have doubled in just two years. What happens in this border “bottleneck” will decide whether violence spills over to the Atlantic or not.

Indicators to Watch

Analysts agree that the immediate future will be shaped by several early warning signals:

• Violence in Benin and Togo: every attack and every casualty measures the expansion of jihadist influence.
  
• Energy corridors: the continuity of the Niger–Benin Oil Pipeline and progress on the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline are stability barometers.
  
• Migration flows: monthly arrivals in the Canary Islands, mortality rates along the route, and potential diversions toward the Strait of Gibraltar.
  
• Political agreements: deals between the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and Morocco or Mauritania signal cooperation; their absence signals tension.
  
• External narratives: spikes in disinformation campaigns are another indicator of shifting geopolitical balances.

Spain on the Frontline

The Sahel is unraveling, and its shockwaves already reach the Atlantic. Spain — and particularly Andalusia and the Canary Islands — faces a scenario where migration, security, and energy are tightly intertwined.

This is not only about border control. What is at stake is the balance of an entire shared space between Europe and Africa.

Image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sahel_Base_Map_v2.png